India’s Forests May Be Growing Greener in a Warming World; IITM Study Warn of Hidden Climate Risks

Reported by Akshata Pawar
Pune, 20th April 2026: At a time when climate change is widely seen as a threat to forests, new research suggests India’s forests could actually store more carbon in the decades ahead. But scientists warn this is not a sign of recovery, instead, it may be a fragile and misleading gain hiding deeper environmental stress.

A study led by researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, finds that carbon stored in India’s living forests is projected to rise significantly by the end of the century, though unevenly across regions and alongside growing climate risks.

The research, titled “Dynamics and future projections of Indian forest carbon stocks under different emission pathways using CMIP6 and LPJ-GUESS,” is published in Environmental Research: Climate.

It was led by Fitha Fathima, Mareena Mathew, and Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll (IITM, Pune), along with Pramit Kumar Deb Burman, Lekshmi M.S., Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi (BITS Pilani, Goa), and Nitin Chaudhary (Lund University, Sweden).

The study focuses on vegetation carbon biomass (VCB), the carbon stored in living parts of forests like trunks, branches, leaves, and roots.

Using climate models and future emission scenarios, researchers analysed how this carbon storage could change from the present to the late 21st century.

Key Findings

India’s forest carbon stock could rise from 7.74 kg/m² to:
-10.24 kg/m² (low emissions)
-11.76 kg/m² (medium emissions)
-13.67 kg/m² (high emissions) by 2100

This means an increase of:
-35% (low emissions)
-62% (medium emissions)
-Up to 97% (high emissions)

Trends remain similar until 2030, but begin to sharply diverge by 2050 depending on emissions.

The increase is uneven across India:
1. Highest rise: Desert and semi-arid regions (western and central India)
2. Moderate rise: Indo-Gangetic plains, Trans-Himalaya, Deccan Plateau
3. Lower rise: Western Ghats, Northeast, and Himalayan forests

No major forest region is expected to see an overall decline in carbon storage.

Rainfall Matters More Than Heat:
A key takeaway: rainfall is the biggest driver of forest carbon changes, even more than temperature at the national level.

– Rainfall impacts appear after 2–4 years
-Forest growth responds slowly to water availability
-Temperature becomes more important regionally under higher emissions

Despite the projected increase, scientists stress that this is not good news in a straightforward sense.

A warmer climate could also mean:
-More droughts and wildfires
-Increased pests and disturbances
-Risk of forest degradation and sudden carbon release
– Greater instability in dense forests

Highlighting the regional variations, Dr. Roxy noted that “India’s forests are not changing in the same way everywhere. Some may store more carbon, but climate change is also increasing risks like droughts and fires.” He emphasised that rainfall continues to play a crucial role, adding that “forest planning must be region-specific and climate-aware.”

Echoing concerns about hidden stress within ecosystems, researcher Fitha Fathima warned that “climate change is quietly reshaping forests,” explaining that even rising carbon levels can be misleading. “Even where carbon increases, it may hide deeper stress,” she said, cautioning that damaged forests could eventually reverse gains by releasing more carbon and weakening environmental stability.

The study’s broader modelling approach also has limitations, as pointed out by Rajiv Chaturvedi. He stated that “the study shows increasing forest carbon, but current models don’t fully include factors like nutrient limits,” underlining the need for more detailed research to improve accuracy.

Meanwhile, Pramit Deb Burman drew attention to geographical differences in forest growth patterns. “The biggest increases are seen in desert and semi-arid regions, while Himalayan and Western Ghats forests grow less,” he said, adding that although rainfall remains the dominant factor, “its influence reduces as warming increases.”

What Needs to Be Done
Researchers call for:
-Region-specific forest strategies
– Better planning based on rainfall patterns
-Focus on preventing risks like fires and droughts
-Improved models that include ecosystem limitations

India’s forests may appear to be gaining strength as carbon sinks, but the reality is more complex. The study makes it clear that these gains come with uncertainty and rising risks, and cannot be seen as a simple climate win.