Seasonal Monsoon Over India As A Whole Is Most Likely To Be Normal, IMD Predicts

Aamir Wadwan

Pune, May 31st 2022: India Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicted that the Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA).”

The rainfall in the 4 homogenous regions of India is most likely to be Above Normal for Central India (>106% of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106% of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and Northwest India (92-108% of LPA).

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the state-run IMD told in the press conference that quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA)with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on data of 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

The monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA). Some parts of east central, east & northeast India and extreme southwest peninsular India, where it is likely to be below normal. Prevailing La Niña conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season is most likely.

About the temperature, below normal maximum temperatures, are likely over most parts of the country except for some parts of northwest India where above normal maximum temperatures are likely. Below normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northwest and northeast India where above normal minimum temperatures are likely.

IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June 2022.