Southwest Monsoon 2025: IMD Predicts Above-Average Rainfall Across India; Maharashtra Likely to Benefit
Pune, 16th April 2025: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a favourable southwest monsoon for 2025, predicting 105% rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the June–September season. A deviation of ±5% is considered normal in such forecasts. The outlook signals promising rainfall prospects for Maharashtra, especially in the Marathwada and central Maharashtra regions.
The announcement was made during a press conference in New Delhi by Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of IMD. The LPA of monsoon rainfall, based on data from 1971–2020, stands at 87 cm (870 mm). Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is considered normal.
Monsoon Outlook for India
According to IMD’s preliminary assessment, most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. However, regions in the extreme north, northeastern states, and Tamil Nadu may witness normal to below-normal monsoon activity. A more detailed, region-wise forecast will be issued in late May.
In 2024, the IMD had predicted 106% of the average rainfall; the actual figure stood at 108% across India — including 26% above-average rainfall in Maharashtra.
Positive Monsoon Forecast for Maharashtra
This year, Maharashtra is expected to receive ample rainfall, with Marathwada and central Maharashtra projected to receive above-normal precipitation. IMD officials highlighted that their April forecasts have been accurate in four of the last five years, adding confidence to this year’s prediction.
Rainfall Probability Breakdown
Above-normal rainfall (104%–110%): 33% chance
Normal rainfall (96%–104%): 30% chance
Slightly below normal (90%–95%): 9% chance
Drought conditions (below 90%): 2% chance
Excess rainfall (above 110%): 26% chance
Scientific Indicators Supporting the Forecast
IMD’s forecast is based on several key climatic factors:
Pacific Ocean temperatures (El Niño/La Niña conditions) – currently neutral
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – in a neutral phase
Northern Hemisphere snow cover – observed to be below average this year
These indicators collectively point towards a favourable monsoon season.
Warning on Heat Stress and Water Availability
Despite the promising forecast, IMD has warned of intense summer heat during April and May, which may lead to increased power demand due to cooling needs and potential water stress. Additionally, while total rainfall is expected to be high, the number of rainy days is decreasing — leading to irregular distribution, with rising risks of both floods and droughts.
