Pune: After 670 mm on Monday and 620 mm on Tuesday, Scientists Call Lonavala’s Recent Downpour a ‘1,000-Year Rainfall Event’

Pune, 7th July 2026: Heavy rain continued to batter the ghat sections of Pune district for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with Lonavala recording 620 mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours and Tamhini receiving 530 mm, even as several parts of the district remained inundated following two days of incessant downpour.

The latest figures came a day after Lonavala recorded 670 mm of rainfall and Tamhini received 580 mm, underlining the intensity of the monsoon over the Western Ghats.

According to research scientists, Rainfall in Lonavala was exceptionally rare weather event.

Vineet Kumar, a research scientist on cyclone wrote on X that a rainfall exceeding 650 mm in a day at Lonavala has a return period of 1,000 years. In statistical terms, this means there is only a 0.1% probability of such an event occurring on any given day of the year.

He further added that it is important to note that a 1,000-year return period does not mean such rainfall occurs only once every 1,000 years or that it will happen again only after another 1,000 years. Rather, it refers to the probability of occurrence in any given year or day, based on statistical analysis of extreme rainfall events—not on having 1,000 years of observed data.

Rainfall Frequency Analysis (as per IMD CWC Atlas, 2015)
Lonawla; 670mm RF recd; equivalent to 1000 year rf freq (654mm)
Bhira;608mm RF recd,equivalent to 50 year rf freq (612mm)
Such extreme events could lead to Landslides,Express Highway & Connecting Link Traffic Disruption pic.twitter.com/2TO793aErd

— K S Hosalikar (@Hosalikar_KS) July 6, 2026

In other words, while such an event is extremely rare, it remains statistically possible for it to occur again sooner, just as it could take much longer to recur. This is what makes the recent rainfall in Lonavala truly remarkable.

According to rainfall data, Dawdi recorded the highest rainfall at 688 mm, followed by Lonavala (620 mm), Tamhini (530 mm), Bhira (512 mm), Dungerwadi (423 mm) and Shirgaon (420 mm). Walvan received 392 mm, Khand 312 mm, Koyna (Navja) 244 mm, Khopoli 240 mm and Bhivpuri 205 mm during the 24-hour period.

The heavy rainfall has led to a sharp rise in the water levels of rivers and streams, triggering flood-like conditions in several parts of Pune district, including Pimpri Chinchwad, Maval and Khed. Multiple roads remained waterlogged, while landslides were reported from the ghat sections, disrupting traffic at several locations.

As Lonavala received 670mm rain in last 24hrs.
We have witnessed once in a lifetime event.
As per IMD the return period of such an extreme rainfall in Lonavala is 1000 year
This mean only once in 1000 years rainfall exceeding 650mm occurs in lonavala.
Truely remarkable Source IMD pic.twitter.com/367SdNyfiZ

— Dr. Vineet Kumar (@vineet_mausam) July 6, 2026

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast continued heavy to very heavy rainfall over the ghat areas, prompting authorities to advise residents and tourists to avoid non-essential travel to vulnerable locations. Rescue teams and district authorities remained on alert as rainfall continued across the region.