Manasi Saraf Joshi
Pune, 16 April 2021: In this gloomy period of Covid-19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has given a piece of good news. It has predicted a normal monsoon this year with 96% to 104% of precipitation from June to September 2021. Some time ago, the minister of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Rajeevan released the first Long Range Forecast (LRF)of the monsoon.
India receives rainfall from Southwest Monsoon winds from June to September. IMD in its press release mentioned that the second LRF will be released in the last week of May. The dates of monsoon arrival will be known by then.
Summary of the rainfall
Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)) said the IMD.
“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm”, it added.
IMD further stated, “The neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecast indicates neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific and negative IOD conditions are likely to develop over the Indian Ocean during the ensuing monsoon season.”
“As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins”, the weather department informed.
IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May 2021. In addition, to update for the April forecast, forecasts for monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for four homogeneous regions and forecast for the month of June also will be issued.
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