Deep Depression over Arabian Sea – Pre Cyclone Watch for Gujarat coast
A low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea (AS) and adjoining Lakshadweep and eastcentral AS in the morning (0830 hrs IST) and became well marked low pressure area over the same region in the evening (1730 hrs IST) of 9th June, 2019. Under favourable environmental conditions, it intensified into a depression over the same region in the morning (0530 hrs IST) of today, the 10th June, 2019 near latitude 11.7°N and longitude 71.0°E. Moving north- northwestwards, it intensified into a deep depression at 1130 hrs IST and lay centered near latitude 12.5°N and longitude 70.9°E over eastcentral and adjoining southeast AS & Lakshadweep area, about 250 km northwest of Aminidivi (Lakshadweep), 760 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Severe Cyclonic Storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to move north-northwestwards during next 72 hours.
It is very likely to cause adverse impact in terms of wind & rainfall over Saurashtra & Kutch mainly on 13th & 14th June, 2019.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
| Date/Time(IST) | Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph) |
Category of cyclonic disturbance |
| 10.06.19/1130 | 12.5/70.9 | 50-60 gusting to 70 | Deep Depression |
| 10.06.19/1730 | 13.2/70.8 | 55-65 gusting to 75 | Deep Depression |
| 11.06.19/0530 | 14.6/70.5 | 65-75 gusting to 85 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 11.06.19/1730 | 16.0/70.3 | 80-90 gusting to 100 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 12.06.19/0530 | 17.5/70.0 | 90-100 gusting to 115 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| 12.06.19/1730 | 19.0/69.8 | 100-110 gusting to 125 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| 13.06.19/0530 | 20.3/69.6 | 110-120 gusting to 135 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
Warnings:
- Heavy rainfall warning:
| Sub-Divisions | 10 June 2019 * | 11 June 2019* | 12 June 2019* | 13 June 2019* | 14 June 2019* |
| Widespread | Widespread | Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places | Widespread | Widespread | |
| Kerala | rainfall with
heavy falls at |
rainfall with
heavy falls at |
rainfall with
heavy falls at |
rainfall with heavy
falls at isolated |
|
| isolated places | isolated places | isolated places | places | ||
| Widespread | |||||
| Lakshadweep area | rainfall with
heavy to very heavy falls at |
Widespread rainfall | Widespread rainfall | Widespread rainfall | Widespread rainfall |
| isolated places | |||||
|
Coastal Karnataka |
Widespread rainfall with heavy to very
heavy falls at isolated places |
Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places | Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places | Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places | Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places |
|
South Interior Karnataka |
Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places |
Rainfall at a few places |
Rainfall at a few places |
Rainfall at a few places |
Rainfall at a few places |
|
Konkan & Goa |
Rainfall at a few places with isolated heavy falls over Goa | Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at
isolated places |
Widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places | Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at
isolated places |
Fairly widespread rainfall |
|
Saurashtra & Kutch |
Dry |
Rainfall at isolated places |
Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places |
Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at
isolated places |
Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places |
Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Legends: Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning
Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than
204.4 mm/day
(ii) Wind warning
- 10th June: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely to prevail over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area. The strong wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph very likely to prevail over Kerala & Karnataka Coasts.
- 11th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase gradually and become gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.
- 12th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 90- 100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12th morning and become 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by 12th evening. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.
- 13th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becomes 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over north Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over Gujarat coast; and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.
(iii) Sea condition
- The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough over Southeast and adjoining Lakshadweep area & Eastcentral Arabian Sea on 10th and very rough to high over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea on 11th. The sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over
eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea on 12th and over north Arabian Sea on 13th June 2019.
- The sea condition is very likely to be rough along & off Kerala & Karnataka Coasts on 10th; Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts on 11th; rough to very rough along & off south Gujarat and Maharashtra Coasts on 12th; very rough to high over along & off Gujarat, north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea on 13th June, 2019.
(iv) Fishermen Warning
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala and Karnataka on 10th & 11th; Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra Coast on 11th & 12th; northeast Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12th & 13th.
Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast.
