Monsoon Rains Set to Arrive on Schedule in Kerala; Heavy Rainfall Expected in Maharashtra from June

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Pune, 27th May 2024: Favorable conditions for the advancement of monsoon rains indicate that they will enter Kerala on schedule, with heavy rains predicted across central India, including Maharashtra, starting in June. The state is expected to receive 106 percent of its average rainfall from June to September, ensuring a strong start to the monsoon season.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra released the second long-term monsoon forecast on Monday, maintaining the earlier prediction of 106 percent above-average rainfall across the country during the June to September monsoon period.

Mohapatra highlighted that the conditions are conducive for the progress of monsoon rains. Cyclone Remal in the Bay of Bengal has accelerated the monsoon’s advance in the region. Monsoon rains are expected to reach Kerala within the next five days. However, Northeast India may experience below-average rainfall in June, with projections of 94 percent or less. North India is expected to receive between 92 and 108 percent of average rainfall, while Central India, including Maharashtra, and South India are forecasted to receive 94 to 106 percent above average rainfall.

For Maharashtra, the average rainfall in June is 209.8 mm, and this year, the state is expected to receive 106 percent of that average. Consequently, heavy rainfall is anticipated from the beginning of the monsoon season. Konkan and South Maharashtra are likely to experience more rainfall compared to Vidarbha and Marathwada in June.

The current El Niño conditions are gradually diminishing, with El Niño expected to become dormant in June. La Niña conditions will become active from July to September, and the Indian Ocean Dipole will activate in June. These positive climatic conditions suggest that the second phase of the monsoon, from August to September, will receive more rainfall than the first phase from June to July.

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Heat Waves in May
This month, the country experienced two significant heatwaves from May 1 to 7 and May 16 to 26. Gujarat faced 12 days of heatwaves, Rajasthan 11, Madhya Pradesh 9, Telangana 7, Punjab and Haryana 6, and Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Odisha, and Tripura 5 days each. Maharashtra experienced 6 days of heatwave conditions. The intensity was particularly high in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana. The ongoing heatwaves in North India are expected to subside by the end of May. However, isolated heatwave conditions may occur in Rajasthan, Delhi, and northern parts of Uttar Pradesh in June, according to the IMD.