Who Wins in Bengal, Assam, Keralam and Tamil Nadu? Exit Polls Have the Answer
New Delhi, 29 April 2026: With results day nearing, exit polls released on Wednesday have set the stage for an intense political finale across five poll-bound states and Union Territory, indicating decisive mandates in some regions and neck-and-neck contests in others. While the BJP appears firmly placed in Assam and Puducherry, Kerala may witness a change of guard, Tamil Nadu seems tilted towards the DMK, and West Bengal remains the most unpredictable battleground.
Assam: BJP Alliance Seen Returning Comfortably
Most pollsters projected a clear win for the BJP-led NDA in Assam.
Axis My India estimated 88-100 seats for the NDA and 24-36 for the Congress-led bloc. People’s Pulse gave the NDA 68-72 seats and the opposition 22-26, while Matrize forecast 85-95 seats for the ruling alliance and 25-32 for Congress and its partners.
In the 126-member House, where 64 is the majority mark, all surveys place the BJP well ahead.
Kerala: UDF Positioned for Revival
Exit polls in Kerala pointed towards a possible return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front after two consecutive terms of Left rule.
Axis My India projected 78-90 seats for the UDF, 49-62 for the LDF and up to three for the NDA. People’s Pulse gave similar numbers, while Matrize suggested a narrower race with the UDF still marginally ahead.
The majority mark in the 140-seat Assembly is 71.
West Bengal: Tightest Contest of the Election
West Bengal emerged as the most fiercely contested state, with agencies offering sharply different projections.
People’s Pulse forecast Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress retaining power with 177-187 seats, while the BJP was projected at 95-110. However, Matrize indicated a BJP advantage with 146-161 seats against TMC’s 125-140. P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats and the TMC 118-138.
With 148 needed in the 294-member Assembly, Bengal remains too close to call.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Favoured to Retain Power
Poll trends in Tamil Nadu suggested the DMK-led alliance may return to office.
People’s Pulse gave the ruling front 125-145 seats, while the AIADMK-BJP combine was placed at 65-80. Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor Vijay, was projected to open its account strongly with 18-24 seats.
Matrize estimated 122-132 seats for the DMK alliance, 87-100 for the NDA combine and 10-12 for TVK.
The majority mark in the 234-seat Assembly is 118.
Puducherry: NDA Holds Edge
In Puducherry, surveys suggested the NDA led by the All India N.R. Congress could return to power.
Axis My India projected 16-20 seats for the NDA, 6-8 for the DMK-Congress alliance and 2-4 for TVK in the 30-member Assembly.
Polling was completed in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, while West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29.
The BJP is aiming to retain Assam and Puducherry, while the Congress hopes for gains in Kerala and a revival elsewhere. The DMK is seeking another term in Tamil Nadu, where it faces a challenge from the AIADMK-BJP alliance and newcomer TVK. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is fighting to stop a determined BJP push.
Though exit polls offer a snapshot of likely trends, they have often missed the mark in the past. The final outcome will only be known when votes are counted on May 4, keeping the suspense alive until then.
