Changes in US could trigger next liberalisation for India – Sanjiv Bajaj

Pune, 21st February 2025: Day 2 of the MEA-PIC Asia Economic Dialogue (AED) 2025 began with a Fireside Chat with Sanjiv Bajaj, Chairman and MD, Bajaj Finserv, hosted by Rama Bijapurkar.

Highlighting the impact of global resets, especially the new US administration under President Donald Trump, Sanjiv Bajaj said that we are in a period of uncertainty. Changes in the US, he observed, will have not only tactical impact but also strategic long-term impacts globally. He said after the PM’s visit to the US, India is hoping for a mini trade deal that balances the interests of both the countries. This, he said, could trigger the next few years of liberalisation for India, after the first one in 1991, which helped India reach a 6-7 per cent growth rate in the next 25 years.

While commending India’s 6-7 per cent growth rate, he said India needs an 8-10 per cent growth rate in the next 20 years, considering the country’s population size. This requires significant reforms and internal reforms, he said, highlighting the high logistics costs (15-16%) in India compared to the 6-8% in Southeast Asia, and the potential benefits of cutting duty rates.
He stressed the importance of domestic financial services, innovation in banking, and leveraging digital public infrastructure like UPI, which handles 16-17 billion transactions monthly. He also outlined Bajaj Finserv’s initiatives to skill 20 million youth and the role of AI in enhancing productivity and consumer engagement.

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Experts advise caution as AI evolves
AI moving towards human-like or surpassing human intelligence: Dr. Ganesh Natarajan
AI literacy will be as important as reading, writing: Jaspreet Bindra
By 2030-2035, world may have more robots than humans: Naiyya Saggi
AI will create massive disruptions in workforce dynamics; leaders must focus on AI safety, responsibility: Mr. Srikant Velamakanni
The session on ‘Re-imagining Leadership in the Era of AI and Automation’, chaired by Dr. Ganesh Natarajan, Executive Chairman and Founder, 5F World, explored how AI has transformed the global landscape. The panellists were Mr. Jaspreet Bindra, Founder, AI&Beyond and The Tech Whisperer UK; Mr. Srikanth Velamakanni, Co-founder and Group Chief Executive, Fractal; Vice Chairman, Nasscom; Mr. Romaine de Laubier, MD and Senior Partner, BCG X; Regional Chair for Asia Pacific; Global Digital Leader of Build for the Future; and Ms. Naiyya Saggi, Founder, Edition (edt.); Group Co-founder, Baby Chakra.

Dr Ganesh Natarajan said that with AI having evolved significantly, the focus now shifts to how leaders respond to this transformation. He said the perception that AI is something confined within a system is a misconception. “Leaders who believe AI can be controlled within a “box” must be cautious—it is continuously evolving,” he said. Dr Natarajan said AI is not the final stage and that it is progressing towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or AI with human-like cognitive abilities, and Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), AI that surpasses human intelligence.

Jaspreet Bindra: AI is evolving at an unprecedented pace, making it difficult for leaders to predict its trajectory. AI is progressing faster than traditional industries and evolving within weeks, not years. AI, unlike today’s AI that provides information, will take action on behalf of users. Striking a balance between AI advancement and responsible governance is crucial. In the future, basic AI literacy will be as important as reading, writing, and arithmetic. AI is not just about upskilling or deep expertise, but about fundamental digital fluency.

Romaine de Laubier: AI advancements, such as DeepSeek and OpenAI, have accelerated disruptions across industries. Companies must anticipate AI-driven transformations and prepare for future challenges rather than reacting to current trends. Research shows that only 4% of companies have successfully integrated AI at scale; and 22% are scaling AI, while 75% are still in the experimental phase (POCs and pilots). AI success is not just about algorithms and technology but about transforming people, processes, and organisations.

Naiyya Saggi: The key question is: Are humans leading AI, or is AI leading humans? By 2030-2035, the world may have more robots than humans, raising ethical and societal concerns. AI has become a matter of national sovereignty and supremacy. In 2017, China allocated $140 billion for AI research and infrastructure. AI is expected to displace or replace over 300 million jobs globally and companies must reshape workflows to integrate AI and re-skill their workforce.

Srikant Velamakanni: AI will create massive disruptions in workforce dynamics and leaders must focus on AI safety and responsibility by addressing job displacement. Urging governments to prepare for workforce disruption, he said India is adding 1 million workers per month, requiring new AI-driven job creation strategies.

Session on African transformation focuses on moving from aid to investment
India among top 5 investors in Africa: Amb. Gautam Bambawale
The session on ‘African Transformation: From Aid to Investment’, chaired by Amb. Gautam Bambawale, explored how India and Africa can deepen their economic engagement by prioritising investment and trade over an assistance-led model. The panellists were H.E. Dr. Anil Sooklal, High Commissioner of South Africa to India; Mr. Akshay Mathur, Senior Director, Asia Society Policy Institute; Dr. Renu Modi, Professor and Director, Centre for African Studies, Mumbai University; and Prof. (Dr.) Hebatallah Adam, Professor of Economics and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs (Master’s Programme), Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), O.P. Jindal Global University, India.

Amb. Bambawale pointed out that India has invested 75b dollars in Africa, making it top 5 investors in India. Prof. Sooklal said Africa’s FDI investment model can be replicated in other African countries. Akshay Mathur said India’s FTA utilisation rate is only ~20%, highlighting the need for better engagement. Dr. Renu Modi highlighted Africa’s strategic importance and said Africa holds 10% of the world’s natural resources and is a key global trade partner with a vast market potential. Dr. Hebatallah Adam said the Duty-Free Tariff Preference (DFTP) programme provides tariff waivers for 97% of African-origin products, creating opportunities for Indian investors. She identified inadequate infrastructure, political instability, uncompetitive business environment, and limited export diversification as challenges limiting investment.

India’s digital public infrastructure envied worldwide: former SBI chairman
The Fireside Chat with Rajnish Kumar, Chairman, Mastercard India; and former Chairman, State Bank of India, was hosted by Dr. Ganesh Natarajan, Executive Chairman and Co-founder, 5F World. Highlighting India’s leadership in digital payments and financial technology, Mr. Rajnish Kumar said UPI, Aadhaar, and JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) exemplify collaborative innovation between the government and private sector. India’s digital public infrastructure, he said, is envied worldwide. On the possible impacts of geopolitical events like Trump’s policies on India’s financial sector, Mr. Rajnish Kumar said capital is fluid and it flows where returns are maximised, whether in the US, India, or elsewhere. India’s biggest strength he said, is its massive market size, making it indispensable for global economies. He said that for India to ensure equitable growth as it moves toward becoming a $10 trillion economy it should overcome challenges in ease of doing business, regulatory reforms, and encouraging investments.

Experts warn climate change is immediate crisis, not distant threat
Call for India’s leadership in representing developing countries for climate finance ‘India second-largest market for green buildings globally’

The session on ‘Survival Before Sustainability: An Agenda for this Decade’, chaired by Mr. Pradeep Bhargava, Chairman, MECF Limited, highlighted climate change as an immediate crisis and no longer a distant threat. The panellists were Dr. Dhruba Purkayastha, Director, Growth and Institutional Advancement, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW); Dr. Arjun Karki, Executive President, Rural Reconstruction Nepal (RRN); former Ambassador of Nepal to the US, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico; Mr. S. Raghupathy, Senior Advisor, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII); and Mr. Kaustubh S. Gosavi, Senior Program Manager, Sustainable Cities and Transport, World Resources Institute (WRI), India.

The session highlighted the need to integrate climate policies into economic planning. Dr Dhruba Purkayastha said that in the face of immediate crises like climate disasters, economic instability, and conflicts, the urgency of survival often overshadows the need for long-term sustainability. Highlighting the global North-South divide, he said developing countries that contribute the least to climate change often bear the brunt of its impacts. He advocated for building climate-resilient economies and achieving climate justice through increased climate finance, technology transfer, and amplifying the voices of developing countries. He urged India’s leadership in representing the interests of developing countries and pushing for robust climate finance. The urgency of survival often overshadows the imperative of sustainability in our country. Dr. Arjun Karki said the urgency of survival often overshadows the imperative of sustainability in our country.

Kaustubh Gosavi emphasised the urgent need to address the existential threat posed by climate change, citing examples of extreme weather events, melting glaciers, and disruptions to winter sports. He criticised the failure of the international system, particularly the COP process, to adequately address climate change and provide sufficient climate finance to developing countries. Mr. S. Raghupathy said India is the second-largest market for green buildings globally, and now has over 15,000 green building projects. He said green buildings have been shown to increase worker productivity by 7% and patient recovery rates in hospitals by 30%. Many Indian companies are now pursuing net-zero buildings, where they generate as much renewable energy on-site as they consume.

Over three days, AED 2025, organised jointly by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Pune International Centre (PIC), focuses on the complexities of economic fragmentation and identifying actionable pathways for resilience and resurgence. Through nuanced discussions on the challenges and opportunities, the conference aims to empower nations, industries, and individuals to navigate the evolving geoeconomic landscape.

Among the pivotal geoeconomic topics explored at AED 2025 are Artificial Intelligence (AI), Cyber Security, African Transformation, Blue Economy, the International Monetary System, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), and Climate Change.

The conference features Fireside Chats and sessions on ‘Re-imagining Leadership in the Era of AI and Automation’; ‘African Transformation: From Aid to Investment’; ‘Survival Before Sustainability: An Agenda for this Decade’; ‘Collaboration on Cyber Resilience: An Economic Imperative’; ‘International Monetary System: Challenges and Reforms’; ‘Unlocking Growth Potential by Empowering MSMEs’; and ‘Blue Economy in India’s Extended Neighbourhood’.