Indian and USA Researchers Developed recovery rate new formula for COVID-19
Copyright to Dr HR Bhapkar and team

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Pune, 24th August 2020: There are several errors in calculating mortality (MR) and recovery rate (RR) according to existing formulas. To this end, Indian and American researchers have developed a new recovery rate formula for covid-19 patients. While computing the Mortality Rate (MR) and Recovery Rate (RR) by existing formulae, we consider the total number of an infected cases till date, which will superfluously increase the denominator and hence decreases the MR and RR.


Why the patients who had admitted yesterday or day before yesterday are considered in the formulae of Mortality rate (MR) and Recovery Rate (RR)? Therefore, practically, it is observed that the classical mathematical equation (to compute MR and RR) may deviate from what it should be, since it does not take recovery time period into account. This primarily motivates us to redefine classical mathematical models.


This is a collaborative research work by Indian and USA researchers Dr HR Bhapkar, MIT ADT University, Pune, Dr Parikshit Mahalle, Pune, India, Dr Nilanjan Dey, Kolkatta, and Dr KC Santosh, USA. “We have defined new formulae by considering recovery time period. These formulae are called as the Progressive Mortality Rate (PMR) and Progressive Recovery Rate (PRR). There is the notable difference between the existing and new formulae. Interestingly, both classical and progressive (New) mathematical models hold same value at the end of the pandemic. So, our formulae give more accurate values of mortality and recovery rates during pandemic than the existing formulae”, Dr Bhapkar said.


He added, “We have developed the synthetic data of the complete pandemic for the better understanding the difference between RR and PRR as well as MR and PMR. We have considered 200 infected cases of complete pandemic from days 1 to 30. After 30 days, no new cases found. Considering an average recovery time period of 14 days, in the following graphs, detailed information about classical and progressive rates for recovery rates are provided.”

Fig. 2. Classical RR and PRR



For the case of COVID-19 in the world by considering average recovery time period the following table gives compression of MR , PMR and RR, PRR as follows.


  

At this point, it is important to note that even though the recovery time periods vary from one case/pandemic to other, the exact same mathematical models could be used to compute progressive mortality and progressive recovery rates.


Prof Dr Vishwanath Karad and Prof Dr Mangesh Karad congratulated Dr H R Bhapkar and team. MIT ADT University always promotes and motivates for the research which is beneficial to the mankind.