Monsoon To Arrive In Kerala On May 31

Manasi Saraf Joshi

Pune, 14th May 2021: There is good news for the Indians. The southwest monsoon is set to arrive in India one day prior to the normal onset date. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon will hit the Kerala coast on May 31.

“This year the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on May 31 with a model error of 4 days”, said IMD in a press release issued on Friday. 

Status of Monsoon 

“As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea was around May 22. At present, a Depression has formed over the Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood which is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during the next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach south Gujarat coast in the early hours of May 18”, the press release. 

“As a result, the cross-equatorial south westerlies have temporarily strengthened over the Arabian Sea. The cross-equatorial flow is very likely to strengthen and deepen over the Bay of Bengal from May 2 and a sustained rainfall activity is likely over the South Bay of Bengal and Andaman and Nicobar Islands from May 21. Hence the monsoon advance over Andaman & Nicobar Islands is very likely around May 21 May 2021. However, the past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country”, it mentioned.

Past dates of onset

IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 16 years (2005-2020) were proved to be correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2016-2020) is given in the table below.

Year – Actual Onset Date – Forecast Onset Date

2016 8th June 7th June

2017 30th May 30th May

2018 29th May 29th May

2019 8th June 6th June

2020 5th June 1st June