Pune: IMD Forecasts Increased Monsoon Rainfall by 106% for India This Year

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Pune, 16th April 2024: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a 106% increase in average rainfall for the monsoon season this year. The southwest monsoon is expected to bring above-average rainfall across the country from June 1 to September 30.

Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, shared this information during a press conference. He noted that global conditions are favourable for increased monsoon rainfall. El Niño is currently active in the Pacific Ocean and its moderate phase, but it is expected to become inactive by early June. Meanwhile, La Niña is set to become active in August-September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to become active in early June, despite currently being inactive. Additionally, the snow cover in Eurasia (Europe and Asia) remained below average in March–April, which is a positive indicator for the southwest monsoon. All these factors suggest that the region will likely experience more than average rainfall this monsoon season.

While much of the main monsoon rain region in South, Central, and North India is expected to see healthy rainfall this season, certain areas such as Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Northeast India, and parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal may receive below-average rainfall. IMD plans to release a revised forecast for southwest monsoon rains at the end of May, which will include monthly rain probabilities and updates on the progress of the monsoon across the country.

Dr. Mrityunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, stated that the southwest monsoon rainfall is projected to be above average at 106%. The revised forecast will be made available in late May, providing month-by-month rainfall predictions and tracking the advancement of the monsoon rains across India.

During La Niña periods, above-average rainfall has been typical, as seen 22 times between 1974 and 2000. In these 22 years, the start of the monsoon season has followed a combination of El Niño and La Niña conditions nine times. La Niña also tends to ensure the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala and spreads throughout the country on time.