Rainfall Will Be Normal To Above Normal Over South Asia: SASCOF

Manasi Saraf Joshi

April: 28, 2021: The Southwest Monsoon Season (June-September) for the year 2021 will be normal to above normal over South Asia. The climate outlook for the 2021 monsoon season was finalised during the 19th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum which was held online from April 26 to 28.

“The rainfall will be above normal in some areas of the North West along the foothills of the Himalayas and North East parts of the region. While it would below normal over many areas including extreme northwest, north East and some areas over north-eastern parts of the region. Meanwhile, the seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal or of climatological probabilities over the remaining areas”, the experts opined in the meeting.

The online forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), winter and spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover and land surface temperature anomalies.

Assessment process

The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. The moderate La Niña conditions that prevailed over the Pacific since July 2020 have weakened to borderline La Niña to ENSO neutral conditions in April 2021.

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Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is a strong consensus among experts that the ENSO neutral conditions are likely to prevail during the southwest monsoon season. It is recognized that the global climate model predictions before and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to the spring barrier in the seasonal predictability. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors as well as the intra-seasonal features of the region can also affect the seasonal climate patterns over the region.

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Temperature outlook during the season

During the season, the minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most areas of west, northwest, north, and northeastern parts of South Asia. Similarly, the minimum temperatures to be below normal over east-central and south-western areas of the region. The seasonal minimum temperatures are likely to be normal or of climatological probabilities over the remaining parts of the region.

The maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal over most of the central parts of South Asia. The maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over the northwest and northern areas of the northeast of the region. Maximum temperatures are likely to normal or of climatological probabilities over the remaining parts of the region.

A collaborative effort of nine National Meteorological Hydrological Services

This regional climate outlook for the 2021 southwest monsoon season over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with the support of international experts.

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