Melting Arctic Ice Driving Intense Monsoon Rains Over South Asia, IITM Study Finds

Reported by Akshata Pawar 
Pune, 17th May 2025: A pioneering new study from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has uncovered a critical link between the melting of Arctic sea ice and increasingly intense monsoon rainfall across South Asia. The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, provides compelling evidence that Arctic climate change is reshaping weather systems thousands of kilometers away.

Key Findings
The study, conducted using IITM’s sophisticated Earth System Model (IITM-ESM), reveals that:
Accelerated Arctic Ice Loss: The Arctic is witnessing a rapid decline in sea ice due to rising global temperatures. This change is more than a regional concern—it’s now influencing global weather systems.

Atmospheric Disruptions: As sea ice melts, it causes alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns. These disruptions extend into tropical regions, affecting the dynamics of the South Asian monsoon.

Stronger Monsoon Rains: The cascading effect of Arctic warming leads to more intense summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The research warns of an increased frequency of extreme rainfall events that can trigger devastating floods and crop damage.

Influence on La Niña: The atmospheric feedback from sea-ice loss also strengthens large-scale weather phenomena such as La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, which further amplifies monsoon variability.

Why it Matters :
South Asia depends heavily on the summer monsoon for agriculture, water supply, and economic stability. However, stronger and less predictable monsoons raise the stakes for disaster preparedness and climate adaptation.

According to Dr. Sandeep Narayanasetti, lead author of the study, this study underscores the global reach of Arctic warming. What happens in the polar north does not stay there—it reverberates across the globe, affecting billions of lives.

Method used for this Study:
Researchers used advanced climate simulations through the IITM-ESM to assess how Arctic sea-ice loss alters atmospheric wave patterns and energy flow. These shifts directly enhance the intensity and frequency of monsoon rainfall over South Asia.

The study involved a multidisciplinary team of Indian scientists, including co-authors Dr. Swapna Panickal, Dr. Raghavan Krishnan, Dr. Milind Mujumdar, Shrayasi Samanta, and Dr. Muthalagu Ravichandran.

As global temperatures continue to rise, the findings raise urgent questions about the future stability of monsoon-dependent regions. The study calls for more integrated climate models that consider remote feedback mechanisms like those originating in the Arctic.

This research is a wake-up call: 
Arctic climate change is not a distant crisis—it is an immediate threat to regions like South Asia that are already vulnerable to climate extremes. Better forecasting and policy planning are now imperative to mitigate the growing risks posed by a rapidly warming world.

To read this News Study:
 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/add0ca