Monsoon Forecast: Maharashtra May Experience Below-Average Rainfall

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Pune, 27th May 2023: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its revised monsoon forecast, revealing that there is a possibility of below-average rainfall in Maharashtra this year during the month of June. The press conference held on Friday (26th) saw Dr. D. S. Pai, the Head of the Atmospheric Monitoring and Research Center of the Meteorology Department, sharing this information along with the updated long-term monsoon forecast.


According to the revised forecast, there is an anticipated 93 percent chance of the country receiving rainfall at or close to the average between June and September, with a deviation of 4 percent or less. Monsoon-dependent regions are expected to witness rainfall ranging from 94 to 106 percent of the average.


However, the map presented during the forecast announcement indicates a lower probability of rain in North Madhya Maharashtra, West Vidarbha, and Marathwada during the monsoon season. Additionally, below-average rainfall is predicted for Maharashtra and the country as a whole in the month of June.


Addressing the gathering, Dr. Pai advised farmers not to rush with sowing activities due to the lower chances of rain in June. He emphasized the importance of observing at least one week of rainfall before commencing sowing operations, suggesting that sowing should only be done after sufficient rainfall. To assist the agricultural sector, IMD has also announced a special forecast that should be regularly monitored by farmers.


Understanding the Average: Historically, the country has received an average rainfall of 868.6 mm during the monsoon season from 1971 to 2020. It is generally assumed that rainfall ranging from 96 to 104 percent of the average is within the normal range. However, this year’s revised forecast indicates a 43 percent chance of rainfall at or near the average, making it the most likely scenario. Notably, June is expected to have below-average rainfall in most parts of the country.


Forecast for June:

The country has a 92 percent chance of below-average rainfall

Maximum temperatures are predicted to exceed the average in most regions

North West India is likely to experience lower rainfall

Maharashtra is expected to have below-average rainfall based on the revised forecast

The northern parts of the Southern Peninsula and the Himalayan foothills may witness average to below-average rainfall

Some parts of Central India may experience average to below-average rainfall

Above-average rainfall is forecasted for the Peninsular region, East Central India, and Northeast India

Wealth Status Forecast:

The Monsoon Mission model and other models suggest the possibility of an ‘El Nino’ condition during this year’s monsoon, which can impact rainfall patterns. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), representing the temperature difference between the equatorial Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, is predicted to remain positive throughout the monsoon season. This favorable condition increases the likelihood of average rainfall.


Rainfall Forecast (in percent):

Central India: 94 to 106

North East India: 94 to 106

Northwest India: 92

South India: 94 to 106

As the revised monsoon forecast sets the stage for the upcoming season, individuals and sectors reliant on rainfall must remain vigilant and adapt their plans accordingly. Regular updates from IMD and adherence to precautionary measures will be essential to navigate the anticipated weather conditions in the coming months.