Pune Lok Sabha Polls: Weather Forecast to Shape Voter Turnout
Pune, 12th May 2024: The forthcoming Lok Sabha polls scheduled on May 13 and May 20 in parts of Maharashtra, including Pune, may witness a significant influence from prevailing weather conditions, according to the latest extended range weather forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
IMD’s forecast for the May 10-16 period predicts the likelihood of rainfall coupled with below-normal maximum temperatures across various constituencies in Maharashtra. Thunderstorms, accompanied by lightning and gusty winds (30-40kmph), are also anticipated at select locations, including those under orange and yellow warnings, until May 14.
Constituencies such as Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Raver, Jalna, Aurangabad, Maval, Pune, Shirur, Ahmednagar, Shirdi, and Beed, slated for polling on May 13, are expected to experience cooler day temperatures, averaging around 38°C-40°C during this period. This marks a notable contrast to the scorching temperatures witnessed during the third phase of Lok Sabha elections on May 7, when daytime temperatures surpassed 40°C.
Medha Khole, head of the weather forecasting division at IMD-Pune, highlighted the likelihood of fairly widespread rainfall activity across Maharashtra on May 13, particularly in the late afternoon or evening hours.
“While there may be a peak in intensity on May 12, with a slight reduction in thunderstorm activity on May 13, rainfall is expected to remain fairly widespread,” Khole stated.
She further elaborated that thunderstorm activity is anticipated across Maharashtra over the next five days, with Marathwada, south Madhya Maharashtra, Pune city, and district likely to witness higher activity. Day temperatures are forecasted to remain slightly lower, ranging from 38°C-40°C, not only due to thundershowers but also owing to rainfall in the upcoming days.
However, Khole clarified that a drastic drop in day temperatures to around 35-36°C is unlikely, as thundershowers may primarily occur during late afternoon hours. Nonetheless, the relief from scorching heat could potentially boost voter participation in the afternoon.
While clouding or showers may aid in maintaining relatively cooler temperatures, late afternoon or evening downpours might pose challenges during the voting process.
Looking ahead to the May 17-23 period, coinciding with voting in constituencies such as Palghar, Bhiwandi, Kalyan, Thane, and across Mumbai on May 20, the weather outlook takes a different trajectory. IMD’s extended range forecast suggests slightly hotter weather for the Konkan coast and Mumbai metropolitan region during this period.
“Thundershower activity is likely to dissipate across most of Maharashtra by then, leading to slightly above-normal maximum temperatures, especially in parts of the Konkan region,” Khole remarked.
Election officials had earlier attributed the lower voter turnout in the previous phase of polling on May 7 to hot weather conditions.
