Fog, Failed Go-Around and Human Factors: Inside the Chain of Errors That Killed Ajit Pawar in Baramati Plane Crash

Reported by Mubarak Ansari
Pune/Baramati, 29th January 2026: The fatal crash that killed Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar on January 28, 2026, was not the result of a single mistake but a deadly convergence of weather, infrastructure limitations, human factors, and operational risk — a classic aviation “Swiss Cheese” failure, investigators say .

The accident involved a Bombardier Learjet 45XR (VT-SSK) operated by New Delhi-based charter company VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd. The jet was flying a short-haul VIP mission from Mumbai to Baramati when it crashed during a second landing attempt in dense fog, killing all five people on board, including Pawar, his personal security officer Vidip Jadhav, flight attendant Pinky Mali, and pilots Captain Sumit Kapoor and First Officer Shambhavi Pathak.

A Short Flight That Turned Fatal
The mission was routine: a 35-40 minute domestic VIP charter from Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport to Baramati Airfield, often used by political leaders during campaign schedules. The aircraft departed Mumbai around 8.10 am and climbed quickly to cruise altitude before descending toward Baramati shortly after 8.30 am.

Baramati is an uncontrolled airfield and lacks an Instrument Landing System (ILS), forcing pilots to rely on visual cues during the final phase of landing. On winter mornings, the region is prone to radiation fog — a meteorological hazard that played a decisive role that day.

Timeline of the Crash
According to flight tracking data, air traffic communication and eyewitness accounts, the final minutes unfolded rapidly:
* 08:30–08:37 IST: The aircraft began its descent toward Baramati. Radar contact was lost briefly as the jet descended below coverage height.
* 08:39 IST: The crew reported they could not see the runway and initiated a go-around — aborting the landing attempt.
* 08:39–08:42 IST: The aircraft climbed and repositioned for a second approach.
* 08:43 IST: The jet aligned for Runway 11.
* 08:44–08:45 IST: Eyewitnesses saw the aircraft tilt sharply left before impacting the ground near the runway threshold and bursting into flames .

No distress call was issued, suggesting the catastrophe unfolded in seconds.

What Is a Go-Around — and Why It Failed
A go-around is a standard aviation manoeuvre in which pilots abort a landing if conditions are unsafe. During a go-around, thrust must be advanced, flaps partially retracted, and landing gear raised while maintaining climb speed. In high-performance jets like the Learjet 45XR, this phase carries high workload and narrow margins.

Investigators believe the crash occurred during this critical transition — when the aircraft was low, slow, and in poor visibility, leaving no room for error.
Weather and Infrastructure: A Dangerous Combination
The weather at Baramati on the morning of the crash included patchy radiation fog. Although reported visibility was around 3,000 meters, local variations likely reduced visibility near the runway. Calm winds allowed fog to stagnate rather than clear quickly.

Baramati Airfield does not have an ILS, meaning pilots must land visually or using basic navigation aids. In fog, this creates a high-risk scenario: if the runway is lost from sight even briefly, pilots must execute a missed approach — exactly what happened here.

Spatial Disorientation: The Invisible Killer
One of the strongest theories in the investigation is somatogravic illusion — a form of spatial disorientation.

During rapid acceleration in a go-around, pilots may feel a false sensation that the aircraft is pitching up. If they trust this sensation over their instruments, they may push the nose down — unknowingly flying the aircraft into the ground.

In fog, with no visual horizon, this illusion becomes even more dangerous. The report strongly suggests the pilots may have experienced this phenomenon in the final seconds.

“Get-There-Itis” and VIP Pressure
The crash also highlights a known risk in VIP aviation: plan continuation bias, commonly called “get-there-itis.”

When carrying high-ranking officials, pilots often feel subtle pressure to complete the mission rather than divert to a safer alternate airport. Pune, which has a full ILS and better facilities, was available as an alternate. Yet the crew attempted a second landing at Baramati despite deteriorating visual conditions.

This psychological pressure does not require direct interference from passengers — the mere presence of a VIP can alter decision-making in the cockpit.

Aircraft and Operator Under Scrutiny
The Learjet 45XR (VT-SSK) was manufactured in 2010 and imported to India in 2021. It held valid airworthiness certificates and passed a DGCA audit in 2025.

However, the operator, VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd, is under scrutiny because another Learjet from the same fleet (VT-DBL) was involved in a runway incident at Mumbai Airport in September 2023 during heavy rain. That accident also occurred during the landing phase and involved loss of directional control and stall warnings.

A pattern of landing-phase incidents raises concerns about training standards, energy management practices, and cockpit culture.

DGCA Oversight and Charter Safety Gaps
VSR Ventures operates under a Non-Scheduled Operator Permit (NSOP). Unlike scheduled airlines, NSOPs are audited less frequently. Investigators note that “paper compliance” in audits does not always reflect real-world cockpit behavior.

The AAIB will examine maintenance logs, training records, and crew duty schedules to determine whether fatigue, automation management, or procedural gaps played a role.

Why Sabotage Is Unlikely
Given Ajit Pawar’s political stature, speculation of sabotage surfaced. But investigators say the evidence overwhelmingly points to an accident.
Sabotage typically causes mid-air breakup or cruise-phase failure. This crash occurred during a high-workload landing manoeuvre in fog — a scenario statistically associated with pilot disorientation and loss of control, not external interference.

The Investigation
The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has secured the crash site. The Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) will be critical in confirming:

* Control inputs
* Throttle and flap settings
* Airspeed and altitude
* Crew communication

These will determine whether the loss of control was due to illusion, procedural error, or a technical anomaly.

A Tragedy With National Implications
Ajit Pawar’s death is not only a political loss but a wake-up call for India’s charter and VIP aviation sector.

Experts say this tragedy exposes three systemic vulnerabilities:
Use of technically limited airfields for VIP flights
Inadequate weather minima enforcement
Gaps in charter operator vetting

The Larger Lesson
Aviation is unforgiving. Margins are thin, and errors multiply quickly when weather, human psychology and infrastructure limitations align.

The Baramati crash shows how even experienced pilots flying a capable aircraft can be trapped by illusion, pressure and poor visibility.

As investigators work toward a final report, one conclusion is already clear: this was not fate — it was a chain of preventable risks.