Dengue Deaths in Pune Could Rise by 40% by 2060 Due to Climate Change: Study

Pune, 22nd January 2025: A recent global study has warned that dengue-related fatalities in Pune could increase by up to 40% by 2060 if significant action is not taken to curb fossil fuel emissions and mitigate global warming. The research, released on Tuesday, highlights the direct impact of rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and humidity on the proliferation of dengue in the region.
The study was conducted by leading institutions, including the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, University of Maryland, Maharashtra government, Pune Municipal Corporation, India Meteorological Department, and the Natural Resources Defense Council. Maharashtra Chief Secretary Sujata Saunik was also part of the research team.
Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a senior scientist at IITM, explained the study’s findings: “Our research shows that increasing temperatures are a major driver of heightened dengue risk in Pune. By mid-century, the average temperature in Pune could rise by 1–1.5°C, and by the late century, it could increase by 1.2–3.5°C, depending on the emissions scenario. Additionally, cumulative rainfall may rise by 23–65 cm, and relative humidity could increase by 0.2–1.6%, with monsoon active-break phases extending by 1–5 days.”
The study found that dengue cases are most likely to surge under conditions where temperatures exceed 27°C, rainfall is moderate and evenly distributed, and humidity levels range between 60% and 78% during the monsoon season (June-September). However, the research also indicated that heavy rainfall above 150 mm in a week could reduce dengue prevalence by washing away mosquito eggs and larvae.
As part of the study, an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered dengue early warning system was developed to enhance outbreak preparedness. Dr. Koll stated, “This AI system can provide more than two months of lead time, allowing local administrations and health departments to implement effective preparedness and response strategies. Such measures could significantly reduce dengue cases and deaths.”
Dr. Koll emphasized the limitations of the current health bulletins issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which only consider a generic temperature threshold for dengue transmission. “Our model incorporates additional factors like rainfall and humidity, as well as their interplay, to deliver more accurate and comprehensive warnings,” he added.
The study underscored the need for enhanced preparedness in states with a high dengue burden, including Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, West Bengal, Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
Dr. Koll noted, “With the AI-based early warning system, these states can improve their response to dengue outbreaks, reducing the disease’s impact. The system’s predictive capabilities can be a game-changer in controlling outbreaks in regions experiencing rapid urbanization and climate change.”
The study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change and its public health implications. Experts have called for immediate measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance vector control efforts, and raise awareness about the interplay between climate factors and disease transmission.